Mobile version. Acronyms are explained below. All times Eastern and PM, except where obvious. As of 01/08/2024 08:15:32 PM -0800.

Teams 6-6 or better that need at-large bids:

Overall: 22-21 (51.2%)
Scores: 4-82 (4.65%)

?=at-large because some conference couldn't fill its bids
* = Accepted invitation
** = Predicted correctly
A team in bold indicates that I predicted the winner correctly
A team in italics means that team won the game, but was not who I picked
A bold score means that I actually managed to pick the score correctly
1: Team meets one of the exception criteria, see the blurb about bylaw 18.7.2 below.

Old predictions
Past years: 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | Index

Above table reflects all teams that are currently bowl eligible as of when this page was last updated. 82 teams are needed to fill all available bids. Note that the Sun Belt's count will not include transitioning James Madison as eligible, and CUSA's Jacksonville State is also not counted.

The introduction of the College Football Playoff in the 2014-2015 season changed a bunch of stuff. Below is a quick guide to the process and links to sources of information.

The College Football Playoff is a new system that includes a rotating set of six bowl games (the Peach, Cotton, Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange) plus a championship game. Each year, two of the games will host semi-final games, which will be seeded according to a committee. The winners of those games will meet in the championship game. The rotation of the games is as such for the semi-finals:
2014, 2017, 2020, 2023: Rose and Sugar
2015, 2018, 2021, 2024: Orange and Cotton
2016, 2019, 2022, 2025: Fiesta and Peach

When those games aren't hosting national semi-finals, they will be the home for conference champions and other teams not selected for the semi-finals. The default matchups are:
Rose: Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1
Sugar: SEC #1 vs. Big 12 #1
Orange: Highest-ranked ACC vs. the highest-ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame
Cotton, Fiesta, and Peach: At-large selections or the "top team" from the Group of Five (which consists of the non-autobid conferences (the American, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt). These bowls can also host the Big Ten or SEC champions if they are not in the playoff when the Rose or Sugar bowls are part of the playoff.

Other rules:
1. Notre Dame can only appear twice as an at-large
2. If the ACC faces a rematch in the Orange Bowl, then the Orange can select the highest ranked available opponent (according to the committee) and the spurned team is placed elsewhere in the framework.
3. If a conference's champion is selected for the play-off, then the next highest ranked team from that conference assumes the berth, except in the Big 12, where the conference runner-up gets it.

Future championship game sites:
2024: Atlanta, GA
2025: Miami Gardens, FL

"ACC #1" means "the first ACC team after the CFP selection process", not "the ACC champion".

Overall eligibility: In the 2022-2023 NCAA Division I Manual (warning, PDF) bylaw 18.7.2 governs Division I FBS football eligibility. The NCAA defines a "deserving team" as a team with an equal number of wins and losses, i.e, a record of 6-6 and better against FBS opponents. For the purposes of this record, a team is also allowed to count one FCS win as well. For 2013, the NCAA added what one might call the "UCLA and Georgia Tech" rule which basically boils down to: a) winning your conference title game makes you a "deserving team" and b) losing your title game does not affect your "deserving team" status.

In addition to deserving teams, bylaw 18.7.2 also spells out what will happen if there are not enough bowl eligible teams for the 40 bowl games. Note that these criteria apply in order, and a particular bowl game may use a team from this "pool" once every four years.
1. The "counting 1 FCS win" rule only applies if the FCS team in question uses 80% of available scholarships out of 63 (so 56.7 scholarships, as FCS allows partial scholarships), so the first criteria is that any FCS school counts for the 1-win.
2. Teams that finished 6-7.
3. Teams that are in their final year of reclassifying to FBS and have a 6-6 record or better. (James Madison this year.)
4. From here, teams in order of their multi-year Academic Progress Rate (APR).

A new cycle began in 2020, which was of course immediately disrupted. Many of these changes are described here, and others are pieced together from various other sources.

The 2020-2025 ACC bowl agreements were announced in 2020 and pretty much abandon any sort of ranking criteria completely. The most important thing is that if the ACC's opponent in the Orange Bowl is from the Big Ten, it will also get a team in the ReliaQuest Bowl in place of the Big Ten. It's worth noting that in practice there seem to be three tiers of games, not two, with the Gator, Holiday, and Pop-Tarts Bowls making up the first tier. It also appears that Notre Dame may not be able to jump ACC teams with better or equal records.
The Big Ten selection process has its own page. The ReliaQuest Bowl will pick an ACC team if the ACC faces a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl (see below).
The Big 12 selection order.
For the Pac-12, I haven't been able to find an official source yet, but Jon Wilner is likely more reliable than the conference itself anyway. Note that the Pac-12 Championship Game loser won't make a repeat trip to Las Vegas for that bowl. Also note that the Alamo, Las Vegas, and Holiday bowls can take a team one-game worse than the best available, but the lower-tier bowls cannot.
The SEC bowl selection order. Note that of the "pool of six", the Liberty is the first off if there's not enough teams.
The American bowl lineup. The American has 3 guarunteed slots for 2023 (Military, Hawaii, and Fenway), plus 4 spots in the Armed Forces, Birmingham, Gasparilla, Boca Raton, Frisco, First Responder, New Mexico, or Myrtle Beach Bowls. "AAC #1/2/3" is used on the table above to indicate that those bowls will take AAC teams, but not neccessarily over any of other bowls.
The Mountain West selection process is here. Their notes mention that for any ESPN Events bowls they're not otherwise contracted with, it will "likely be held in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex". This implies the Armed Forces, First Responder, and Frisco Bowls.
I haven't been able to find an official source for the MAC. For now, I am using this. According to that source, the MAC will get 2 teams into the Cure, Myrtle Beach, New Mexico, Boca Raton, or Frisco Bowls.
The Sun Belt released their official bowl selection process here last season. I don't have 2022 information of them yet, other than this source. I believe that per the NCAA rules above, James Madison would be eligible if they are 6-5 or better and there are not 82 otherwise bowl eligible teams.
The Conference USA bowl agreements are here.

ESPN owns and operates the following bowls: Armed Forces Bowl, Bahamas Bowl, Birmingham Bowl, Boca Raton Bowl, Camellia Bowl, Cure Bowl, Fenway Bowl, First Responder Bowl, Frisco Bowl, Gasparilla Bowl, Hawaii Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, Myrtle Beach Bowl, New Mexico Bowl, Potato Bowl, and the Texas Bowl.. Occasionally swaps occur for random reasons usually involving these games.

Schedule sources: Matt Sarz, conference media guides (see above), and individual bowl websites.