Mobile version. Acronyms are explained below. All times Eastern and PM, except where obvious. As of 01/08/2017 12:28:47 AM -0800.

Teams 6-6 or better that need at-large bids:

Overall: 21-19 (52.5%)
Scores: 5-75 (6.25%)

?=at-large because some conference couldn't fill its bids
* = Accepted invitation
** = Predicted correctly
A team in bold indicates that I predicted the winner correctly
A team in italics means that team won the game, but was not who I picked
A bold score means that I actually managed to pick the score correctly
1: Team meets one of the exception criteria, see the blurb about bylaw 18.7.2 below.

Old predictions
Past years: 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | Index

Above table reflects all teams that are currently bowl eligible as of when this page was last updated. 80 teams are needed to fill all available bids.

The introduction of the College Football Playoff in the 2014-2015 season changed a bunch of stuff. Below is a quick guide to the process and links to sources of information.

The College Football Playoff is a new system that includes a rotating set of six bowl games (the Chick-fil-A, Cotton, Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange) plus a championship game. Each year, two of the games will host semi-final games, which will be seeded according to a committee. The winners of those games will meet in the championship game. The rotation of the games is as such for the semi-finals:
2014-2015, 2017-2018: Rose and Sugar Bowls
2015-2016, 2018-2019: Orange and Cotton Bowls
2016-2017, 2019-2020: Fiesta and Chick-fil-a Bowls
This will continue through the 2025-2026 season.

When those games aren't hosting national semi-finals, they will be the home for conference champions and other teams not selected for the semi-finals. The default matchups are:
Rose: Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1
Sugar: SEC #1 vs. Big 12 #1
Orange: Highest-ranked ACC vs. the highest-ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame
Cotton, Fiesta, and Peach: At-large selections or the "top team" from the Group of Five (which consists of the non-autobid conferences (the American, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt). These bowls can also host the Big Ten or SEC champions if they are not in the playoff when the Rose or Sugar bowls are part of the playoff.

Other rules:
1. Notre Dame can only appear twice as an at-large
2. If the ACC faces a rematch in the Orange Bowl, then the Orange can select the highest ranked available opponent (according to the committee) and the spurned team is placed elsewhere in the framework.
3. If a conference's champion is selected for the play-off, then the next highest ranked team from that conference assumes the berth, except in the Big 12, where the conference runner-up gets it.

"ACC #1" means "the first ACC team after the CFP selection process", not "the ACC champion".

Overall eligibility: The 2016-2017 NCAA Division I Manual (warning, PDF) bylaw 18.7.2 governs Division I FBS football eligibility. The NCAA defines a "deserving team" as a team with an equal number of wins and losses, i.e, a record of 6-6 and better against FBS opponents. For the purposes of this record, a team is also allowed to count one FCS win as well. Note that it is no longer a requirement that all above .500 teams are selected before 6-6 teams. For 2013, the NCAA added what one might call the "UCLA and Georgia Tech" rule which basically boils down to: a) winning your conference title game makes you a "deserving team" and b) losing your title game does not affect your "deserving team" status.

In addition to deserving teams, bylaw 18.7.2 also spells out what will happen if there are not enough bowl eligible teams for the 40 bowl games. Note that these criteria apply in order, and a particular bowl game may use a team from this "pool" once every four years (effective 8/2012).
1. The "counting 1 FCS win" rule only applies if the FCS team in question uses 90% of available scholarships out of 63 (so 56.7 scholarships, as FCS allows partial scholarships), so the first criteria is that any FCS school counts for the 1-win.
2. Teams that finished 6-6 with two FCS wins. This year, this rule could potentially apply to North Carolina or Army.
3. Teams that finished 6-7 (this used to be the "UCLA rule" but conference championships can no longer make a team ineligible for a bowl).
5. Teams that are reclassifying to FBS and have a 6-6 record. There are no reclassifying teams this year.
6. Teams in the top 5 of the APR and with a 5-7 record. This year, those teams are Duke, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, and Michigan.

The ACC bowl selection criteria are buried in the massive media guide (warning: huge PDF) on page 20. The ACC no longer has a "one-win rule" and instead is using a more SEC-style "general list of criteria to emphasize regionality and quality matchups". Notre Dame is eligible for all the ACC's bowls (including the Citrus), but must be within one win of the best available ACC team at the time.
The Big Ten selection process has its own page. The Capital One Bowl will pick an ACC team if the ACC faces a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl (see below). See also the Big Ten bowl tracking page.
The Big 12 selection order.
The Pac-12 bowl selection order, on page 133.
The SEC bowl selection order on page 39. Note that of the "pool of six", there Liberty is the first off if there's not enough teams.
The American bowl lineup. Teams will be placed "based on best fit for the Conference and its membership".
The Mountain West media guide has their bowl games on page 29. There is no particular order, though the Las Vegas bowl claims they have the first pick (and this has usually been the case in the past).
The MAC media guide lists its bowl tie-ins on page 12. This article from 2014 also talks about them a bit. The MAC is also a secondary for any ESPN owned and operated bowl games. The media guide specifically calls the MAC out as a backup for the St. Petersburg and Birmingham Bowls.
The Sun Belt's weekly press releases list their tie-ins in selection order, which is very nice of them.
Conference USA has their bowl tie-ins on page 160 of their media guide.
As far as independents other than Notre Dame go, BYU has a tie-in with the Poinsettia Bowl this year, and Army has not yet made any announcements. Apologies to any UMass fans out there, but I'm not especially worried about them making a bowl this year.

Other notes:

• The Citrus Bowl must select an ACC team if the ACC's opponent in the Orange Bowl is from the Big Ten. This can happen up to three times in six years. This did not happen in 2014, and cannot happen in 2015 due to the Orange being a semi-final site.
• The Music City and TaxSlayer Bowls are splitting ACC and Big Ten teams. Each bowl will get three teams from both conferences over the current set of six-year contracts. In 2014, Music City took Notre Dame (counts as ACC) and the TaxSlayer took Iowa. In 2015, the Music City took Louisville and the TaxSlayer took Penn State.
• Frustratingly, the C-USA, AAC, and MAC media guides list conflicting information regarding the Boca Raton and Bahamas Bowls. In each case, the AAC media guide says that they will play a team from "either the Mid-American Conference or Conference USA in 2016". The MAC media guide says the conference will have five gaurunteed bowl bids, including the Boca Raton and Bahamas bowls "as primary partners". In the matchup listing, they have it as "vs. American Athl./C-USA". The C-USA media guide says the conference has six gaurunteed bowl bids including the Boca Raton and Bahamas. For the Boca Raton, their media guide says they will play a team from the MAC in the Boca Raton and from the AAC or MAC in the Bahamas. The directory on the next page doesn't list the AAC for either. The Bahamas Bowl website says the team will come from two of the three conferences, while the Boca Raton website has the MAC's logo on it but says it will match the AAC and C-USA. My suspcion is that the real answer is that since ESPN controls almost all of these conferences' bowl games and their backup bids, they'll just shuffle things around to make it work. In other words, take any of my predictions involving these three conferences with a grain of salt. I'll keep an eye out for new information as the season progresses.

Schedule sources: CollegeFootballPoll, Matt Sarz, conference media guides (see above), and individual bowl websites.