Mobile version. Acronyms are explained below. All times Eastern and PM, except where obvious. As of 01/11/2021 09:29:58 PM -0800.

Teams 6-6 or better that need at-large bids: All teams, except for the following known opt-outs/bans: Louisiana State, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Stanford, Georgia Tech, Southern Methodist, Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, San Diego State, California-Los Angeles, Utah, Washington, Southern California, Pennsylvania State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Michigan State, Maryland, Boise State.

Overall: 13-13 (50%)
Scores: 2-50 (4%)

?=at-large because some conference couldn't fill its bids
* = Accepted invitation
** = Predicted correctly
A team in bold indicates that I predicted the winner correctly
A team in italics means that team won the game, but was not who I picked
A bold score means that I actually managed to pick the score correctly
1: Team meets one of the exception criteria, see the blurb about bylaw 18.7.2 below.

Old predictions
Past years: 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | Index

For 2020, the above table includes teams that were announced to a bid but whose bowl game was subsequently canceled.

The introduction of the College Football Playoff in the 2014-2015 season changed a bunch of stuff. Below is a quick guide to the process and links to sources of information.

The College Football Playoff is a new system that includes a rotating set of six bowl games (the Peach, Cotton, Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange) plus a championship game. Each year, two of the games will host semi-final games, which will be seeded according to a committee. The winners of those games will meet in the championship game. The rotation of the games is as such for the semi-finals:
2014, 2017, 2020, 2023: Rose and Sugar
2015, 2018, 2021, 2024: Orange and Cotton
2016, 2019, 2022, 2025: Fiesta and Peach

When those games aren't hosting national semi-finals, they will be the home for conference champions and other teams not selected for the semi-finals. The default matchups are:
Rose: Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1
Sugar: SEC #1 vs. Big 12 #1
Orange: Highest-ranked ACC vs. the highest-ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame
Cotton, Fiesta, and Peach: At-large selections or the "top team" from the Group of Five (which consists of the non-autobid conferences (the American, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt). These bowls can also host the Big Ten or SEC champions if they are not in the playoff when the Rose or Sugar bowls are part of the playoff.

Other rules:
1. Notre Dame can only appear twice as an at-large
2. If the ACC faces a rematch in the Orange Bowl, then the Orange can select the highest ranked available opponent (according to the committee) and the spurned team is placed elsewhere in the framework.
3. If a conference's champion is selected for the play-off, then the next highest ranked team from that conference assumes the berth, except in the Big 12, where the conference runner-up gets it.

Future championship game sites:
2021: Indianapolis, IN
2022: Inglewood, CA
2023: Houston, TX
2024: TBD
2025: TBD

"ACC #1" means "the first ACC team after the CFP selection process", not "the ACC champion".

Overall eligibility: The 2016-2017 NCAA Division I Manual (warning, PDF) bylaw 18.7.2 governs Division I FBS football eligibility. The NCAA defines a "deserving team" as a team with an equal number of wins and losses, i.e, a record of 6-6 and better against FBS opponents. For the purposes of this record, a team is also allowed to count one FCS win as well. Note that it is no longer a requirement that all above .500 teams are selected before 6-6 teams. For 2013, the NCAA added what one might call the "UCLA and Georgia Tech" rule which basically boils down to: a) winning your conference title game makes you a "deserving team" and b) losing your title game does not affect your "deserving team" status.

In addition to deserving teams, bylaw 18.7.2 also spells out what will happen if there are not enough bowl eligible teams for the 40 bowl games. Note that these criteria apply in order, and a particular bowl game may use a team from this "pool" once every four years (effective 8/2012).
1. The "counting 1 FCS win" rule only applies if the FCS team in question uses 90% of available scholarships out of 63 (so 56.7 scholarships, as FCS allows partial scholarships), so the first criteria is that any FCS school counts for the 1-win.
2. Teams that finished 6-6 with two FCS wins. For 2019, there are no teams that meet this criterion.
3. Teams that finished 6-7 (this used to be the "UCLA rule" but conference championships can no longer make a team ineligible for a bowl).
5. Teams that are reclassifying to FBS and have a 6-6 record. There are no reclassifying teams for 2019.
6. Teams in the top 5 of the APR and with a 5-7 record. This year, those teams are Northwestern, Air Force, Vanderbilt, Navy, and Duke.

All "deserving team" requirements are waived for 2020.

A new cycle began in 2020, which was of course immediately disrupted. Many of these changes are described here, and others are pieced together from various other sources.

The 2020-2025 ACC bowl agreements were announced in 2020 and pretty much abandon any sort of ranking criteria completely. The most important thing is that if the ACC's opponent in the Orange Bowl is from the Big Ten, it will also get a team in the Outback Bowl (I assume in place of the Big Ten).
The Big Ten selection process has its own page. The Citrus Bowl will pick an ACC team if the ACC faces a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl (see below).
The Big 12 selection order.
The Pac-12 bowl selection order, on page 139.
The SEC bowl selection order. Note that of the "pool of six", the Liberty is the first off if there's not enough teams.
The American bowl lineup on page 15.
The Mountain West bowl lineup. Note that the MWC is a backup for the Cheez-It Bowl, but if used the Cheez-It Bowl gets to pick right after the Las Vegas Bowl. However, the Redbox Bowl backup slot is filled only after all the other MWC bowls are filled.
The MAC bowl lineup on page 14. This article from 2014 also talks about them a bit. The MAC is also a secondary for any ESPN owned and operated bowl games.
The Sun Belt bowl lineup on page 21.
The Conference USA bowl lineup, page 168.
As far as independents other than Notre Dame go: so far I've found statements saying BYU is eligible for "ESPN-affiliated bowls" and not much else.

Other notes:

• The Outback Bowl must select an ACC team if the ACC's opponent in the Orange Bowl is from the Big Ten.
• ESPN owns and operates the following bowls: Armed Forces Bowl, Birmingham Bowl, Bahamas Bowl, Boca Raton Bowl, Camellia Bowl, Potato Bowl, First Responder Bowl, Frisco Bowl, Gasparilla Bowl, Hawaii Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, Montgomery (soon to be FenwayLa ) Bowl, New Mexico Bowl, and the Texas Bowl. Occasionally swaps occur for random reasons usually involving these games.

Games not played in 2020:

Schedule sources: Matt Sarz, conference media guides (see above), and individual bowl websites.